UTICA, NY — SUNY Polytechnic Institute (SUNY Poly) Assistant Professor of Mechanical Engineering Technology, Dr. Ahmed Abdelaal, has been awarded $397,410 by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to support innovative research on the impacts of climate change on atmospheric icing and its implications for structural design standards.

The project, titled “Climate Change Effects on Atmospheric Icing and Its Impact on Codes and Standards for Structural Design,” is being conducted in collaboration with scientists from the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR), including Co-Principal Investigator Dr. Mari Tye and Dr. Rachel McCrary. NSF NCAR will receive $200,000 as a sub-awardee on the project, while SUNY Poly will receive $197,410.

“Dr. Abdelaal’s groundbreaking work underscores SUNY Poly’s commitment to addressing the pressing challenges of climate change through innovative research and collaboration,” said Dean of the College of Engineering Dr. Abdullah Eroglu. “This project is a testament to his expertise and leadership in the field, and it highlights the impactful contributions of our faculty to advancing both science and societal resilience.”

This critical work will examine how climate change will affect ice loads on buildings and infrastructure. As rising temperatures enhance atmospheric moisture capacity, precipitation intensity, frequency, and distribution are expected to shift significantly. These changes could lead to more extreme freezing rain events, creating urgent challenges for structural resilience.

“Current design codes and standards rely on historical data that do not account for the changing climate,” Dr. Abdelaal explained. “This could mean that infrastructure built today may not withstand the evolving weather extremes of tomorrow. Our research aims to fill this gap by incorporating future climate projections into structural design standards.”

The project will utilize advanced climate modeling tools, drawing on data from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) hosted at NSF NCAR. Using these models, researchers will analyze historical and projected freezing rain events from 1950 to 2100 to assess future ice loads on structures. The team will employ ice models and extreme value analysis to quantify the severity and intensity of these events, enabling more accurate predictions and design adjustments.

A significant outcome of this research will be its contribution to the American Society of Civil Engineers’ (ASCE) efforts to update Standard 7: Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures. This update, slated for 2028, will include a new chapter addressing future environmental hazards, including ice loads, snow, wind, rain, and flooding, in the context of a warming climate.

“This work is not just about adapting to climate change but ensuring the resilience and safety of our infrastructure for future generations,” Dr. Abdelaal emphasized. “It’s an honor to lead this effort and collaborate with world-class researchers at NCAR to address this critical challenge.”