SUNY Poly Professor of Technology Management Dr. Robert Edgell's research titled, "Sociotechnical Pathways: From Satellites and Stations to Envisioning Commercial Lunar Gateways and Beyond," has been accepted into the prestigious 2025 AIAA SciTech Conference. Dr. Edgell will present this innovative work in January, contributing to the discussions around space commercialization and future lunar exploration. Moreover, his research provides valuable perspectives to the fields of space policy, theory, and practice.
 
The paper explores the evolving landscape of outer space activities, emphasizing the shift from government-led initiatives to growing commercial involvement. It situates the development of Commercial Lunar Gateways (CLGs) within a broader, multi-generational effort to establish a permanent human presence in space.
 
Dr. Edgell employs an enhanced Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework to analyze the sociotechnical systems driving this evolution. His study examines the interplay between technological advancements, regulatory frameworks, and social interests, focusing on three distinct periods in the commercial space timeline:
 
Space 1.0: The foundations of spaceflight, marked by initial government efforts and technological advancements.
Space 2.0: Orbital endurance, characterized by increased commercial activity and long-term missions.
Space 3.0: Interplanetary ambitions, focusing on deeper space exploration and the establishment of a sustained human presence beyond Earth.

Each period is assessed through its dominant transition pathway, the trajectory of space activities, and the organizing models that mobilize collective action. The research highlights the growing complexity of space endeavors, driven by technological innovations and the collaboration of both public and private entities.
 
Through the MLP analysis, Dr. Edgell identifies how landscape pressures, niche innovations, and regime structures have interacted to shape the trajectory of space commercialization. He presents three possible future scenarios for CLGs, each defined by different pathways, organizing models, and sociotechnical visions, offering insights into the challenges and opportunities that will shape the future of space exploration and commercialization.

Dr. Edgell is a member of AIAA's Lunar Surface Exploration and Development Task Force (LSED-TF), which is chartered to identify and document critical steps for lunar surface exploration that will promote sustainable lunar and space exploration, international cooperation, and economic development, while providing recommendations on site requirements, resource development, and commercial integration for long-term lunar habitation.