That the size of the proposed solar panel factory here would expand fivefold only recently seemed an implausible dream in this Rust Belt city. But that announcement came in September, and now lightning may be about to strike twice with word that the factory could enlarge a further fivefold.

News business writer Stephen T. Watson reported earlier this month that the state’s deal with SolarCity, the California solar energy company, to locate here allows the state a four-month window to grab first dibs on any additional solar panel manufacturing capacity the company may build over the next 10 years.

Sure, there is a lot that could go wrong – or simply not perfectly – in the attempt to get SolarCity to the point where A: it can expand at all, and B: that it would expand here in Buffalo.

But a year ago there would have been long odds against us having this discussion at all. Thank Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and his Buffalo Billion for seeking out this cutting-edge industry for Buffalo. Recently re-elected, Cuomo has been focused on significantly improving this region’s economy. SolarCity is the largest example of that effort.

[caption id="" align="alignright" width="513"] The ceremonial goundbreaking for the SolarCity project at RiverBend took place in September. (Mark Mulville/Buffalo News)[/caption]

The solar panel company plans to create 2,900 jobs on a former brownfield site in South Buffalo now called RiverBend. The state is spending $750 million to build the factory to be used by the company. The proposal generated immediate criticism, with opponents likening it to the federal Solyndra fiasco.

That solar energy company went bankrupt after receiving more than half a billion dollars in federal loan guarantees. The difference with SolarCity is that the money is not going to the company; New York will own the state-of-the-art facility it is paying for.

The project is not without risk, of course. Another company with better technology could trump SolarCity. Demand for residential solar panel installations could slow. A recent News article quoted an analyst with Morgan Stanley who wrote about the release of SolarCity’s third-quarter earnings report. The analyst discussed his firm’s opinion “… that management may continue struggling to exceed relatively lofty expectations in the coming quarters.”

It is hard, though, not to be positive about the deal, considering its recent history. New York State originally struck a deal with Silevo, a small manufacturer of solar panels. The company was to operate a 200-megawatt solar panel factory and create 475 jobs at the 88-acre RiverBend site. The state planned to spend $225 million to build a facility shared by Silevo and the LED manufacturer Soraa.

When SolarCity, the nation’s largest installer of residential solar panel systems, acquired Silevo in September, the entire game changed. Suddenly, the governor announced a much larger project, with the state tripling its investment and SolarCity promising to spend $5 billion, including salaries, over 10 years. The project promises not only good-paying factory jobs, it will offer the kind of tech jobs that college graduates now leave town to find.

Buffalo led a revolution in electrical power more than a century ago when hydroelectric power from Niagara Falls was transmitted what was then a long distance. With SolarCity, the city appears to be on its way to participating in the latest revolution in electrical power.